Playoff Probabilities Report

Results are based on 10,000 simulations of the remainder of season, including the play-in round.

See more details about the results. We also use these simulations to project the draft order and lottery winners.

Projected Standings

Projected Standings Table
														First Round Seed									Pre Play-In
Rk	Eastern Conference	W	L	W/L%	SOS	rSOS	SRS	Current	Remain	Best	Worst	Playoffs	Division	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8		1-6	7	8	9	10	Out		Win Conf	Win Finals
1	Boston Celtics	55.9	26.1	.682	-0.35	0.18	5.61	38-16	18-10	64-18	47-35	100.0%	93.4%	75.8	17.6	4.8	1.5	0.3					100.0							33.7%	24.1%
2	Milwaukee Bucks	52.6	29.4	.641	-0.18	0.34	2.55	37-17	16-12	62-20	43-39	100.0%	58.8%	13.0	39.7	25.1	15.8	5.7	0.7				100.0							10.4%	5.5%
3	Cleveland Cavaliers	51.3	30.7	.625	0.18	-1.05	5.43	34-22	17-9	59-23	41-41	99.9%	41.2%	7.1	27.3	33.0	21.4	9.6	1.3	0.2			99.7	0.3						28.6%	19.7%
4	Philadelphia 76ers	50.4	31.6	.614	-0.58	1.12	3.08	34-18	16-14	60-22	41-41	99.8%	6.0%	3.8	13.1	27.1	36.3	15.0	3.6	0.7	0.2		98.9	0.8	0.2	0.1				11.7%	6.6%
5	Brooklyn Nets	47.8	34.2	.583	-0.12	0.41	1.82	32-21	16-13	58-24	38-44	98.2%	0.6%	0.3	2.3	9.1	20.8	46.4	14.3	3.5	1.6		93.1	4.8	1.5	0.4	0.1			5.9%	2.8%
6	Miami Heat	43.2	38.8	.526	0.10	0.12	0.21	29-25	14-14	54-28	33-49	73.0%	69.1%			0.5	1.9	10.1	28.9	17.8	13.7		41.5	22.4	13.9	10.4	6.8	5.1		1.6%	0.6%
7	New York Knicks	43.4	38.6	.529	-0.02	0.30	1.73	29-26	14-13	52-30	34-48	75.8%				0.3	1.7	7.1	27.2	23.6	15.9		36.3	27.7	16.6	10.5	5.6	3.3		3.8%	1.9%
8	Chicago Bulls	41.2	40.8	.502	0.12	-0.05	0.91	26-27	15-14	50-32	32-50	50.4%				0.1	0.3	2.8	8.1	19.7	19.4		11.2	15.8	23.2	19.1	15.3	15.5		1.8%	0.7%

9	Atlanta Hawks	40.9	41.1	.499	-0.09	0.16	-0.33	27-27	14-14	50-32	32-50	43.5%	23.6%				0.3	2.4	9.9	14.9	16.0		12.6	13.9	17.6	19.0	17.0	19.9		0.8%	0.3%
10	Washington Wizards	38.9	43.1	.474	0.33	-0.44	-0.33	24-29	15-14	48-34	29-53	21.2%	7.2%					0.4	2.5	6.8	11.5		2.9	5.3	9.5	14.6	19.1	48.6		0.5%	0.2%
11	Toronto Raptors	39.6	42.4	.483	0.34	-0.46	0.92	25-30	15-12	48-34	31-51	29.5%						0.3	3.2	10.2	15.8		3.5	7.6	13.0	17.5	20.5	38.0		1.1%	0.4%
12	Indiana Pacers	37.2	44.8	.454	0.44	-0.30	-1.82	25-30	12-15	47-35	29-53	8.5%						0.1	0.3	2.5	5.6		0.4	1.4	4.4	8.0	14.1	71.9		0.1%
13	Orlando Magic	33.8	48.2	.412	0.19	0.11	-2.87	22-32	12-16	44-38	24-58	0.4%	0.1%								0.4				0.1	0.4	1.7	97.8
14	Detroit Pistons	23.0	59.0	.280	0.76	-0.41	-6.66	14-41	9-18	34-48	15-67																	100.0
15	Charlotte Hornets	24.3	57.7	.296	0.40	0.21	-6.18	15-40	9-18	34-48	17-65																	100.0

Table
														First Round Seed									Pre Play-In
Rk	Western Conference	W	L	W/L%	SOS	rSOS	SRS	Current	Remain	Best	Worst	Playoffs	Division	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8		1-6	7	8	9	10	Out		Win Conf	Win Finals
1	Denver Nuggets	53.7	28.3	.655	-0.21	-0.24	3.63	37-17	17-11	63-19	43-39	100.0%	99.9%	88.6	10.4	0.9	0.1						100.0							27.5%	12.7%
2	Memphis Grizzlies	49.5	32.5	.604	-0.19	-0.44	3.42	32-21	18-11	59-23	40-42	99.7%	92.0%	10.3	63.9	18.5	3.8	1.8	0.8	0.5	0.3		98.9	0.6	0.3	0.1	0.1			23.8%	10.1%
3	Sacramento Kings	45.7	36.3	.557	-0.65	0.40	2.03	30-23	16-13	55-27	35-47	92.9%	56.0%	0.9	14.8	32.3	16.0	11.0	8.3	5.8	3.9		83.3	6.1	4.3	2.7	1.8	1.8		12.1%	4.0%
4	Dallas Mavericks	43.4	38.6	.529	0.06	-0.62	0.64	29-26	14-13	52-30	34-48	75.3%	5.0%	0.1	2.8	9.1	16.4	14.7	13.0	10.2	8.9		56.2	10.8	9.9	8.6	6.1	8.5		5.5%	1.6%
5	Phoenix Suns	43.2	38.8	.527	-0.04	0.23	1.27	29-26	14-13	52-30	35-47	74.9%	21.1%		2.7	12.4	13.8	13.8	12.4	10.5	9.4		55.1	11.2	9.6	8.2	6.4	9.6		6.9%	2.1%
6	New Orleans Pelicans	43.0	39.0	.525	-0.07	-0.49	1.75	28-27	15-12	52-30	33-49	72.1%	3.0%		1.8	7.0	14.4	14.0	13.1	11.6	10.2		50.3	11.5	10.1	9.3	7.1	11.8		7.8%	2.5%
7	Golden State Warriors	42.3	39.7	.516	0.02	-0.17	0.29	28-26	14-14	52-30	33-49	60.8%	11.2%		1.6	6.6	9.2	10.2	11.0	11.8	10.5		38.5	11.5	11.7	11.4	9.7	17.2		3.7%	1.0%
8	Los Angeles Clippers	42.7	39.3	.521	-0.72	1.19	-0.38	31-26	12-13	52-30	35-47	62.5%	11.6%		1.4	7.4	9.6	11.3	12.0	10.9	9.9		41.6	11.6	11.3	10.9	9.4	15.3		2.5%	0.6%

9	Minnesota Timberwolves	41.3	40.7	.504	-0.37	0.47	0.18	29-27	12-14	52-30	32-50	44.6%			0.3	2.2	4.9	6.9	8.5	9.9	12.0		22.7	10.4	11.4	12.8	13.7	29.1		2.4%	0.6%
10	Utah Jazz	41.1	40.9	.501	0.00	-0.23	0.82	27-28	14-13	50-32	32-50	45.1%			0.2	1.8	5.0	6.6	8.7	10.5	12.3		22.3	10.1	11.1	11.6	13.4	31.6		3.2%	1.0%
11	Oklahoma City Thunder	40.7	41.3	.496	0.20	-0.49	1.11	25-28	16-13	51-31	31-51	37.4%			0.1	1.4	4.3	5.3	6.7	9.3	10.4		17.8	8.2	9.5	10.5	13.5	40.7		3.1%	0.8%
12	Portland Trail Blazers	39.9	42.1	.487	-0.19	0.22	0.00	26-28	14-14	50-32	29-53	27.6%			0.1	0.6	2.2	3.8	4.8	7.1	8.9		11.5	6.5	8.4	9.7	12.2	51.8		1.5%	0.4%
13	Los Angeles Lakers	37.9	44.1	.462	-0.14	0.32	-1.40	25-29	13-15	49-33	28-54	7.1%	0.1%			0.1	0.3	0.6	0.9	2.0	3.3		1.8	1.7	2.6	4.2	6.7	82.9		0.1%
14	Houston Rockets	21.2	60.8	.258	0.26	0.30	-7.64	13-41	8-20	32-50	13-69																	100.0
15	San Antonio Spurs	20.9	61.1	.255	0.48	-0.04	-9.56	14-40	7-21	30-52	14-68																	100.0