Playoff Probabilities Report
Results are based on 10,000 simulations of the remainder of
season, including the play-in round.
See more details about the results. We also use these simulations to
project the draft order and lottery winners.
Projected Standings
First Round Seed | Pre Play-In | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Rk | Eastern Conference | W | L | W/L% | SOS | rSOS | SRS | Current | Remain | Best | Worst | Playoffs | Division | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 1-6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | Out | Win Conf | Win Finals | ||
1 | Boston Celtics | 55.9 | 26.1 | .682 | -0.35 | 0.18 | 5.61 | 38-16 | 18-10 | 64-18 | 47-35 | 100.0% | 93.4% | 75.8 | 17.6 | 4.8 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 100.0 | 33.7% | 24.1% | ||||||||||
2 | Milwaukee Bucks | 52.6 | 29.4 | .641 | -0.18 | 0.34 | 2.55 | 37-17 | 16-12 | 62-20 | 43-39 | 100.0% | 58.8% | 13.0 | 39.7 | 25.1 | 15.8 | 5.7 | 0.7 | 100.0 | 10.4% | 5.5% | |||||||||
3 | Cleveland Cavaliers | 51.3 | 30.7 | .625 | 0.18 | -1.05 | 5.43 | 34-22 | 17-9 | 59-23 | 41-41 | 99.9% | 41.2% | 7.1 | 27.3 | 33.0 | 21.4 | 9.6 | 1.3 | 0.2 | 99.7 | 0.3 | 28.6% | 19.7% | |||||||
4 | Philadelphia 76ers | 50.4 | 31.6 | .614 | -0.58 | 1.12 | 3.08 | 34-18 | 16-14 | 60-22 | 41-41 | 99.8% | 6.0% | 3.8 | 13.1 | 27.1 | 36.3 | 15.0 | 3.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 98.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 11.7% | 6.6% | ||||
5 | Brooklyn Nets | 47.8 | 34.2 | .583 | -0.12 | 0.41 | 1.82 | 32-21 | 16-13 | 58-24 | 38-44 | 98.2% | 0.6% | 0.3 | 2.3 | 9.1 | 20.8 | 46.4 | 14.3 | 3.5 | 1.6 | 93.1 | 4.8 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 5.9% | 2.8% | |||
6 | Miami Heat | 43.2 | 38.8 | .526 | 0.10 | 0.12 | 0.21 | 29-25 | 14-14 | 54-28 | 33-49 | 73.0% | 69.1% | 0.5 | 1.9 | 10.1 | 28.9 | 17.8 | 13.7 | 41.5 | 22.4 | 13.9 | 10.4 | 6.8 | 5.1 | 1.6% | 0.6% | ||||
7 | New York Knicks | 43.4 | 38.6 | .529 | -0.02 | 0.30 | 1.73 | 29-26 | 14-13 | 52-30 | 34-48 | 75.8% | 0.3 | 1.7 | 7.1 | 27.2 | 23.6 | 15.9 | 36.3 | 27.7 | 16.6 | 10.5 | 5.6 | 3.3 | 3.8% | 1.9% | |||||
8 | Chicago Bulls | 41.2 | 40.8 | .502 | 0.12 | -0.05 | 0.91 | 26-27 | 15-14 | 50-32 | 32-50 | 50.4% | 0.1 | 0.3 | 2.8 | 8.1 | 19.7 | 19.4 | 11.2 | 15.8 | 23.2 | 19.1 | 15.3 | 15.5 | 1.8% | 0.7% | |||||
9 | Atlanta Hawks | 40.9 | 41.1 | .499 | -0.09 | 0.16 | -0.33 | 27-27 | 14-14 | 50-32 | 32-50 | 43.5% | 23.6% | 0.3 | 2.4 | 9.9 | 14.9 | 16.0 | 12.6 | 13.9 | 17.6 | 19.0 | 17.0 | 19.9 | 0.8% | 0.3% | |||||
10 | Washington Wizards | 38.9 | 43.1 | .474 | 0.33 | -0.44 | -0.33 | 24-29 | 15-14 | 48-34 | 29-53 | 21.2% | 7.2% | 0.4 | 2.5 | 6.8 | 11.5 | 2.9 | 5.3 | 9.5 | 14.6 | 19.1 | 48.6 | 0.5% | 0.2% | ||||||
11 | Toronto Raptors | 39.6 | 42.4 | .483 | 0.34 | -0.46 | 0.92 | 25-30 | 15-12 | 48-34 | 31-51 | 29.5% | 0.3 | 3.2 | 10.2 | 15.8 | 3.5 | 7.6 | 13.0 | 17.5 | 20.5 | 38.0 | 1.1% | 0.4% | |||||||
12 | Indiana Pacers | 37.2 | 44.8 | .454 | 0.44 | -0.30 | -1.82 | 25-30 | 12-15 | 47-35 | 29-53 | 8.5% | 0.1 | 0.3 | 2.5 | 5.6 | 0.4 | 1.4 | 4.4 | 8.0 | 14.1 | 71.9 | 0.1% | ||||||||
13 | Orlando Magic | 33.8 | 48.2 | .412 | 0.19 | 0.11 | -2.87 | 22-32 | 12-16 | 44-38 | 24-58 | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.4 | 1.7 | 97.8 | |||||||||||||
14 | Detroit Pistons | 23.0 | 59.0 | .280 | 0.76 | -0.41 | -6.66 | 14-41 | 9-18 | 34-48 | 15-67 | 100.0 | |||||||||||||||||||
15 | Charlotte Hornets | 24.3 | 57.7 | .296 | 0.40 | 0.21 | -6.18 | 15-40 | 9-18 | 34-48 | 17-65 | 100.0 |
First Round Seed | Pre Play-In | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Rk | Western Conference | W | L | W/L% | SOS | rSOS | SRS | Current | Remain | Best | Worst | Playoffs | Division | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 1-6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | Out | Win Conf | Win Finals | ||
1 | Denver Nuggets | 53.7 | 28.3 | .655 | -0.21 | -0.24 | 3.63 | 37-17 | 17-11 | 63-19 | 43-39 | 100.0% | 99.9% | 88.6 | 10.4 | 0.9 | 0.1 | 100.0 | 27.5% | 12.7% | |||||||||||
2 | Memphis Grizzlies | 49.5 | 32.5 | .604 | -0.19 | -0.44 | 3.42 | 32-21 | 18-11 | 59-23 | 40-42 | 99.7% | 92.0% | 10.3 | 63.9 | 18.5 | 3.8 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 98.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 23.8% | 10.1% | |||
3 | Sacramento Kings | 45.7 | 36.3 | .557 | -0.65 | 0.40 | 2.03 | 30-23 | 16-13 | 55-27 | 35-47 | 92.9% | 56.0% | 0.9 | 14.8 | 32.3 | 16.0 | 11.0 | 8.3 | 5.8 | 3.9 | 83.3 | 6.1 | 4.3 | 2.7 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 12.1% | 4.0% | ||
4 | Dallas Mavericks | 43.4 | 38.6 | .529 | 0.06 | -0.62 | 0.64 | 29-26 | 14-13 | 52-30 | 34-48 | 75.3% | 5.0% | 0.1 | 2.8 | 9.1 | 16.4 | 14.7 | 13.0 | 10.2 | 8.9 | 56.2 | 10.8 | 9.9 | 8.6 | 6.1 | 8.5 | 5.5% | 1.6% | ||
5 | Phoenix Suns | 43.2 | 38.8 | .527 | -0.04 | 0.23 | 1.27 | 29-26 | 14-13 | 52-30 | 35-47 | 74.9% | 21.1% | 2.7 | 12.4 | 13.8 | 13.8 | 12.4 | 10.5 | 9.4 | 55.1 | 11.2 | 9.6 | 8.2 | 6.4 | 9.6 | 6.9% | 2.1% | |||
6 | New Orleans Pelicans | 43.0 | 39.0 | .525 | -0.07 | -0.49 | 1.75 | 28-27 | 15-12 | 52-30 | 33-49 | 72.1% | 3.0% | 1.8 | 7.0 | 14.4 | 14.0 | 13.1 | 11.6 | 10.2 | 50.3 | 11.5 | 10.1 | 9.3 | 7.1 | 11.8 | 7.8% | 2.5% | |||
7 | Golden State Warriors | 42.3 | 39.7 | .516 | 0.02 | -0.17 | 0.29 | 28-26 | 14-14 | 52-30 | 33-49 | 60.8% | 11.2% | 1.6 | 6.6 | 9.2 | 10.2 | 11.0 | 11.8 | 10.5 | 38.5 | 11.5 | 11.7 | 11.4 | 9.7 | 17.2 | 3.7% | 1.0% | |||
8 | Los Angeles Clippers | 42.7 | 39.3 | .521 | -0.72 | 1.19 | -0.38 | 31-26 | 12-13 | 52-30 | 35-47 | 62.5% | 11.6% | 1.4 | 7.4 | 9.6 | 11.3 | 12.0 | 10.9 | 9.9 | 41.6 | 11.6 | 11.3 | 10.9 | 9.4 | 15.3 | 2.5% | 0.6% | |||
9 | Minnesota Timberwolves | 41.3 | 40.7 | .504 | -0.37 | 0.47 | 0.18 | 29-27 | 12-14 | 52-30 | 32-50 | 44.6% | 0.3 | 2.2 | 4.9 | 6.9 | 8.5 | 9.9 | 12.0 | 22.7 | 10.4 | 11.4 | 12.8 | 13.7 | 29.1 | 2.4% | 0.6% | ||||
10 | Utah Jazz | 41.1 | 40.9 | .501 | 0.00 | -0.23 | 0.82 | 27-28 | 14-13 | 50-32 | 32-50 | 45.1% | 0.2 | 1.8 | 5.0 | 6.6 | 8.7 | 10.5 | 12.3 | 22.3 | 10.1 | 11.1 | 11.6 | 13.4 | 31.6 | 3.2% | 1.0% | ||||
11 | Oklahoma City Thunder | 40.7 | 41.3 | .496 | 0.20 | -0.49 | 1.11 | 25-28 | 16-13 | 51-31 | 31-51 | 37.4% | 0.1 | 1.4 | 4.3 | 5.3 | 6.7 | 9.3 | 10.4 | 17.8 | 8.2 | 9.5 | 10.5 | 13.5 | 40.7 | 3.1% | 0.8% | ||||
12 | Portland Trail Blazers | 39.9 | 42.1 | .487 | -0.19 | 0.22 | 0.00 | 26-28 | 14-14 | 50-32 | 29-53 | 27.6% | 0.1 | 0.6 | 2.2 | 3.8 | 4.8 | 7.1 | 8.9 | 11.5 | 6.5 | 8.4 | 9.7 | 12.2 | 51.8 | 1.5% | 0.4% | ||||
13 | Los Angeles Lakers | 37.9 | 44.1 | .462 | -0.14 | 0.32 | -1.40 | 25-29 | 13-15 | 49-33 | 28-54 | 7.1% | 0.1% | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 2.0 | 3.3 | 1.8 | 1.7 | 2.6 | 4.2 | 6.7 | 82.9 | 0.1% | |||||
14 | Houston Rockets | 21.2 | 60.8 | .258 | 0.26 | 0.30 | -7.64 | 13-41 | 8-20 | 32-50 | 13-69 | 100.0 | |||||||||||||||||||
15 | San Antonio Spurs | 20.9 | 61.1 | .255 | 0.48 | -0.04 | -9.56 | 14-40 | 7-21 | 30-52 | 14-68 | 100.0 |
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